DOM.RF Forecasts About 20% Growth in Russian Mortgage Lending for 2026
Mortgage lending in Russia will grow by about 20% in 2026 if the central bank's baseline forecast materializes, DOM.RF (ДОМ.РФ) expects. The forecast was presented by Mikhail Goldberg (Михаил Гольдберг), head of the company's analytics center, and reported by Interfax on November 24, 2025. The 2025 market capacity is estimated by the company at about 4 trillion rubles.
The 2026 forecast: about 20% growth
The DOM.RF estimate is tied to the regulator's baseline scenario. If the central bank's baseline forecast comes true, mortgage issuance in 2026 will increase by about 20% against the current year, Mikhail Goldberg noted. The starting point is the 2025 market capacity, which the analytics center puts at approximately 4 trillion rubles.
By the time the forecast was presented the market had already passed the bulk of the annual volume: in October and the first half of November, according to DOM.RF, about 3.3 trillion rubles of mortgages were issued. The remaining weeks of the year are expected to bring the total to the estimated 4 trillion rubles.
- 2025 — mortgage market capacity of about 4 trillion rubles;
- October and the first half of November 2025 — about 3.3 trillion rubles issued;
- 2026 — a forecast of 4.8–4.9 trillion rubles, possibly up to 5 trillion rubles.
The middle of the forecast range — 4.8–4.9 trillion rubles — corresponds to the stated growth pace of about 20% relative to the 2025 estimate, while the upper bound of up to 5 trillion rubles assumes an even more favorable rate environment.
Everything depends on the central bank rate
Goldberg stresses that the dynamics of market mortgage programs — and therefore the entire 2026 forecast — depend on the central bank key rate. It is the rate that determines the affordability of loans without state support and the banks' appetite for risk in this segment.
Why the revival is called unstable
The current revival of demand is "very unstable," according to the head of the DOM.RF analytics center. One reason is the acceleration of family mortgage issuance: market participants hurry to close deals before the change in the compensation terms for banks — from the new year the margin under this program is cut from 2.5% to 2%.
Once the parameters change, banks may retreat into a more reliable segment and issuance will shrink. At the same time, Goldberg notes, the situation is better than in the first half of 2025, yet the market recovery remains fragile.
The government's estimate: November above 500 billion rubles
Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin (Марат Хуснуллин), for his part, expects mortgage issuance in November to exceed 500 billion rubles. At the same time he calls the situation in mortgage lending alarming: issuance under market programs has never been this low.
October results and year-end expectations
The reference point for the November estimate is the October statistics: banks provided 105,000 mortgage loans worth 481 billion rubles, 19% more than in September. In November and December 2025 market participants expect the trend to continue.
- October 2025 — 105,000 mortgage loans worth 481 billion rubles, plus 19% against September;
- November 2025 — issuance forecast above 500 billion rubles;
- November–December 2025 — expectation that the growth trend persists.
What determines the 2026 outcome
The DOM.RF forecast of 4.8–4.9 trillion rubles, possibly up to 5 trillion rubles, will materialize only if the central bank's baseline scenario holds and the revival of demand proves sustainable after the family mortgage terms change. Otherwise the banks' retreat into a more reliable segment may cut issuance, and the 2026 result will land below the stated range. The key variable remains the key rate: it draws the boundary between the growth scenario of about 20% and a new cooling of the market.
Leave a comment