Russian New-Car Sales Fall 15.6% in 2025 to 1.326 Million Units After Two Years of Recovery
New passenger car sales in Russia fell 15.6% in 2025, to 1.326 million units against 1.571 million in 2024, according to data of the market research agency Autostat citing PPK figures, as reported by The Economic Times. The full-year result ended two consecutive years of market recovery and returned the country's car market to contraction.
Full-year 2025: 1.326 million cars
Over the twelve months of 2025, 1.326 million new passenger cars were sold in the country, which is 15.6% below the 1.571 million units recorded in 2024. The Autostat tally, based on PPK data, shows that the decline reversed the positive dynamics of the two preceding periods, when the market was rebuilding volumes after the collapse of 2022.
From the 2022 plunge to the 2023-2024 recovery
The current market cycle began with the plunge of 2022, when sales collapsed to Soviet-era lows after Western automakers withdrew from the country. The following two years, 2023 and 2024, became a recovery period: sales grew for two consecutive years, until the growth stalled in 2025.
Why growth stalled in 2025
- higher interest rates, which made car loans more expensive and postponed part of the purchases;
- saturation of the demand that had accumulated during the recovery years of 2023 and 2024;
- the increase of the scrappage fee, which raised the cost of vehicles for buyers.
Year-end acceleration: December up 10.6%
The monthly dynamics at the end of the year stood in contrast to the full-year decline. Sales in December 2025 rose 10.6% year on year, following a 5% increase in November. Buyers rushed to complete their purchases ahead of the scrappage fee hikes scheduled for December and January, which pulled additional demand into the final weeks of 2025.
AEB expects a weak start to 2026
In December, AEB stated that the market is expected to weaken at the start of 2026 because of price hikes. The expectation follows the year-end buying rush, when sales grew in November and December as purchasers hurried to complete deals ahead of the scrappage fee increases of December and January, The Economic Times reported.
Key reference points of the cycle
- 2022: sales plunged to Soviet-era lows after Western automakers left the market;
- 2023-2024: two years of recovery with growing sales;
- 2025: a 15.6% decline to 1.326 million units on higher rates, saturation and the scrappage fee increase;
- December 2025: plus 10.6% year on year after plus 5% in November, on pre-hike buying;
- start of 2026: AEB expects the market to weaken because of price hikes.
The Russian passenger car market therefore closed 2025 with a double-digit annual decline interrupted by a pre-hike buying surge in the last two months of the year, and enters 2026 with the industry's expectation of a weak opening period shaped by higher prices.
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