Aeroflot CEO Expects Slight 2025 Traffic Decrease for Russian Airlines as Foreign Carriers Grow 10%-20%
Russia's airlines may see a slight decrease in passenger traffic in 2025 while foreign carriers continue to add passengers at a double-digit pace, Aeroflot CEO Sergei Alexandrovsky said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Sept 8, 2025, as reported by Interfax English. The divergence between Russian and foreign operators, together with the growing foreign share of the international market, frames the industry's outlook into 2026.
EEF-2025: a slight decrease expected for Russian airlines
Speaking at the forum, Alexandrovsky said passenger traffic of Russian airlines in 2025 may slightly decrease compared with 2024, while traffic of foreign airlines in Russia is growing by 10%-20%. He expects this trend to continue in 2026 as well, which points to a structural shift in the competitive balance on routes to and from the country rather than to a single-season fluctuation.
Seven-month data and the group's result
The January-July statistics of the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) show total traffic of Russian airlines at 62.1 million passengers, 1.7% below the same period of 2024. Aeroflot Group, the country's largest carrier, moved in the opposite direction over the seven months: its traffic increased 1.2%, to 31.6 million passengers, so the group outperformed the market it operates in.
Key figures for January-July 2025
- Russian airlines in total: 62.1 million passengers, down 1.7% year on year;
- Aeroflot Group: 31.6 million passengers, up 1.2%;
- foreign airlines' traffic in Russia: growth of 10%-20%, per the EEF-2025 assessment.
Full-year forecasts differ
Rosaviatsiya forecasts full-year 2025 traffic of Russian airlines to decline by almost 2%, to 109.7 million passengers. The Transport Ministry, by contrast, expects the industry to hold last year's level of 111.7 million passengers, so the two official estimates outline a range of outcomes for the year rather than a single trajectory, Interfax English reported.
Official reference points for full-year 2025
- Rosaviatsiya's forecast: almost 2% below the 2024 result, at 109.7 million passengers;
- the Transport Ministry's expectation: retention of the 2024 level of 111.7 million passengers;
- Aeroflot's EEF-2025 assessment: a slight decrease for Russian airlines with foreign carriers growing 10%-20%.
Foreign carriers' share of the international market
The competitive shift is visible in the market structure as well. According to Aeroflot's June investor presentation, foreign carriers accounted for 41.8% of Russia's international air transportation market in the first quarter of 2025, 3.3 percentage points more than a year earlier. The combination of a slightly contracting domestic industry and expanding foreign operations makes the foreign share one of the key indicators to watch as the market enters 2026.
The EEF-2025 remarks, the seven-month statistics and the diverging full-year forecasts therefore describe the same picture from three angles: Russian airlines face a mildly shrinking market at home, foreign carriers expand on Russian routes at a double-digit pace, and the foreign share of the international segment keeps climbing. For Aeroflot Group, which grew against the market in January-July, the 2026 continuation of the trend named at the forum will be the test of that resilience.
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