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USDA Raises Russia's 2026/27 Wheat Export Forecast by 0.5 Mln Tonnes to 47.5 Million Tonnes

On July 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in the 2026/27 season by 0.5 million tonnes, to 47.5 million tonnes, Interfax reported on July 13, 2026. The same July report lifted the country's wheat production estimate by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88.5 million tonnes, while the forecast for the European Union was left unchanged.

July report: exports and production both revised up

The July revision moved the two key indicators of Russia's wheat balance for the 2026/27 season in the same direction and by the same magnitude. The export forecast was raised by 0.5 million tonnes, to 47.5 million tonnes, and the production estimate was raised by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88.5 million tonnes. The EU forecast was not touched: according to the July report, EU wheat exports remain at 31 million tonnes.

In other words, the July document revised upward both the supply side of the wheat balance, measured by production, and the external sales side, measured by exports, and the size of the two revisions was identical — 0.5 million tonnes each. The EU line, by contrast, carried over from the earlier estimates without any change.

Bulk carrier loading wheat at a terminal
Bulk carrier loading wheat at a terminal

How the forecast has moved through 2026

The July figures are the second step of this summer's revisions. In the June report, published on June 15, 2026, the USDA kept Russia's wheat export forecast at 47 million tonnes while raising the production estimate by 2 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes. A month before the July revision, in other words, exports were assessed at 47 million tonnes and production at 88 million tonnes.

  1. June 15, 2026: exports held at 47 million tonnes; production raised by 2 million tonnes, to 88 million tonnes;
  2. July 13, 2026: exports raised by 0.5 million tonnes, to 47.5 million tonnes; production raised by 0.5 million tonnes, to 88.5 million tonnes.

Between the two reports the export estimate for the 2026/27 season moved from 47 million tonnes to 47.5 million tonnes, and the production estimate from 88 million tonnes to 88.5 million tonnes. The June production revision of 2 million tonnes remains the largest single step of the summer; the July adjustments were more modest and identical in size for both indicators.

The IGC's July assessment

Ten days after the USDA report, on July 23, 2026, the International Grains Council (IGC) presented its own assessment: according to Interfax, the organization kept its forecast for Russia's wheat exports unchanged at 47.7 million tonnes and raised its estimate of the country's total grain exports to 54.9 million tonnes, up from 54.2 million tonnes.

Two independent assessments of Russia's wheat exports in the 2026/27 season therefore stand close together: 47.5 million tonnes in the USDA's July report and 47.7 million tonnes in the IGC's unchanged forecast, a difference of 0.2 million tonnes. The IGC grain figure covers all grain crops rather than wheat alone, and its upward revision, from 54.2 million tonnes to 54.9 million tonnes, that is by 0.7 million tonnes, complements the wheat picture.

A checklist document and a packed cargo box, illustrating the accounting of export shipments behind the USDA and IGC forecasts for Russian wheat and grain
On July 23, 2026 the IGC kept Russia's wheat export forecast at 47.7 million tonnes and raised the grain export estimate to 54.9 million tonnes from 54.2 million tonnes.

What the numbers show

None of the July documents revised the EU forecast, and the IGC left its wheat figure for Russia unchanged: the movement on the wheat line came from the USDA report, while the movement on the grain line came from the IGC estimate. The two organizations thus updated different lines of the same seasonal balance.

Conclusion

The report of July 13, 2026 raised Russia's wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 season to 47.5 million tonnes and the production estimate to 88.5 million tonnes, adding 0.5 million tonnes to each indicator against the June values of 47 million tonnes and 88 million tonnes. The EU forecast remained at 31 million tonnes. The IGC, for its part, kept Russia's wheat exports at 47.7 million tonnes and raised the country's grain export estimate from 54.2 million tonnes to 54.9 million tonnes. Taken together, the July documents outline the external sales parameters of the new season: wheat in the range of about 47.5 to 47.7 million tonnes and, on the IGC estimate, grain at 54.9 million tonnes.

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