Russian GDP Grew an Estimated 4.2% in January-September 2024 as the Quarterly Pace Slowed to 3.1%, Rosstat Data Show
Russia's gross domestic product grew an estimated 4.2% year on year in January–September 2024, according to the federal statistics service Rosstat. The quarterly path published by the statistics service in mid-November shows the growth pace easing through the year: plus 5.4% in the first quarter, plus 4.1% in the second and plus 3.1% in the third. After Rosstat's third-quarter data were released, the Economic Development Ministry revised its nine-month estimate upward, from 4.0% to 4.2%.
Nine months of 2024: GDP up an estimated 4.2%
MOSCOW, November 27, 2024 — Gross domestic product of Russia grew an estimated 4.2% year on year in the first nine months of 2024, according to the data of Rosstat, the federal statistics service. The nine-month estimate and the accompanying quarterly readings were reported by Interfax at https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/108089/.
The key readings of the release are as follows:
- January–September 2024 — GDP up an estimated 4.2% year on year;
- first quarter of 2024 — plus 5.4% year on year;
- second quarter of 2024 — plus 4.1%;
- third quarter of 2024 — plus 3.1%;
- Economic Development Ministry nine-month estimate — revised to 4.2% from 4.0%.
Every quarterly reading is positive in year-on-year terms, and the cumulative nine-month result of 4.2% sits between the strongest quarter of the year, the first at 5.4%, and the weakest, the third at 3.1%. The estimate is the headline figure of the release: it sums up three quarters of growth into a single nine-month reading.
Quarterly path: the pace eased in each quarter
The quarterly path published by Rosstat in mid-November shows a steady deceleration across 2024. Growth of 5.4% in the first quarter was followed by 4.1% in the second and by 3.1% in the third, a deceleration of 2.3 percentage points from the first quarter to the third. Each successive quarter of the year recorded a lower year-on-year pace than the one before it.
The deceleration shapes how the nine-month result is read. The cumulative 4.2% was built on a strong opening quarter, while the most recent quarter of the period contributed at a slower pace. All three quarters nonetheless remained in positive year-on-year territory, which is why the nine-month estimate stays above 4%.
The ministry lifts its estimate from 4.0% to 4.2%
The Economic Development Ministry revised its estimate of GDP growth for the first nine months of 2024 upward, from 4.0% to 4.2%, after Rosstat published its third-quarter data in mid-November. The revised ministry figure matches the nine-month estimate of the statistics service, and the revision itself followed the release of the quarterly path. The revision was reported by Interfax at https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/108089/.
The upward revision of two tenths of a percentage point places the ministry's reading of the nine-month economy on the same level as Rosstat's. Before the third-quarter data arrived, the ministry's working estimate stood at 4.0%; after them, it stands at 4.2%. The direction of the revision is upward, in line with the positive quarterly readings of the year.
What the estimate means for the year
The nine-month figure of 4.2% is an estimate, and the release presents it as one: Rosstat's reading of January–September output, accompanied by the quarterly path of 5.4%, 4.1% and 3.1%. The ministry's revision from 4.0% to 4.2% is a second official reading of the same nine months, and the two now coincide.
The two dimensions of the release tell different stories. On the cumulative side, the economy grew an estimated 4.2% over nine months, and the ministry's upward revision points in the same direction. Within the year, the quarterly pace eased from quarter to quarter, reaching 3.1% in the third. The November release sets both facts side by side: a solid nine-month result and a slowing quarterly path, with the fourth quarter of 2024 still to be measured.
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