News FlashEconomyLast updated: 11 November 2024

Russia's Trade Surplus Grows 11.6% to $114.9 Billion in Nine Months of 2024 as Imports Contract 4.9%

The positive trade balance surplus of Russia for January–September 2024 reached $114.9 billion, up 11.6% year on year from $103.0 billion in the same period of 2023, according to Federal Customs Service (FCS) data reported by Interfax on November 11, 2024. The widening came not from an export boom: exports rose by only 0.4%, to $318.2 billion. The decisive movement was on the import side, which contracted 4.9%, to $203.3 billion. Trade flows kept shifting toward Asia, which took about three quarters of Russian exports.

Merchant vessel alongside a cargo loading quay

A wider surplus on the back of weaker imports

MOSCOW, November 11, 2024 — The nine-month foreign trade figures published by the customs service and reported by Interfax show a surplus that expanded by a double-digit percentage against a nearly flat export line. The key parameters for January–September 2024, with their year-on-year comparisons, are as follows:

trade surplus — $114.9 billion, up 11.6% from $103.0 billion in January–September 2023;
exports — $318.2 billion, up 0.4% from $316.9 billion;
imports — $203.3 billion, down 4.9% from $213.9 billion.

The composition of the change matters as much as its size. Exports added only $1.3 billion year on year, while imports shrank by $10.6 billion. Together these two movements account for the entire $11.9 billion increase in the surplus: the gap widened mostly because spending on foreign goods fell, not because sales abroad accelerated.

The arithmetic of the gap

A simple decomposition of the year-on-year change shows the mechanics. The surplus rose from $103.0 billion to $114.9 billion, that is by $11.9 billion. Of that sum, the export contribution was plus $1.3 billion ($318.2 billion minus $316.9 billion), and the import contribution was plus $10.6 billion ($213.9 billion minus $203.3 billion, since lower imports widen the surplus). The two components, $1.3 billion plus $10.6 billion, add up exactly to the $11.9 billion increase.

The same figures can be read as a coverage ratio: exports covered imports 1.57 times in January–September 2024, against about 1.48 times a year earlier. A ratio that rises because its denominator shrinks is the signature of a surplus built on import contraction rather than on export strength.

Exports: nearly flat overall, redirected eastward

The regional breakdown of exports for the nine months shows where the modest growth came from and where it was lost. Asia remained the dominant destination and the main source of growth, while shipments to Europe kept shrinking sharply:

Asia — $240.3 billion, up 6.4%;
Europe — $50.1 billion, down 24.3%;
Africa — $18.4 billion, up 17.9%;
the Americas — $9.2 billion, up 0.9%.

Asia's share of total exports works out to about 75.5% ($240.3 billion out of $318.2 billion), in line with the customs data description of roughly three quarters of exports going to the region. Europe's share, by contrast, fell to about 15.7% ($50.1 billion out of $318.2 billion), and in absolute terms the European export bill shrank by roughly $16.1 billion from an implied $66.2 billion a year earlier. Africa, from a small base, posted the fastest percentage growth of any region.

A globe with meridian lines and marked points: the regional geography of Russia's foreign trade in January–September 2024 — Regional geography of trade: exports to Asia grew 6.4% to $240.3 billion while exports to Europe fell 24.3% to $50.1 billion in January–September 2024.

Imports: down across every region

The import side of the account moved in the opposite direction to the export geography: purchases declined in every region for which the customs service published figures. Asia remained the largest supplier, yet even its shipments to Russia contracted:

Asia — $135.6 billion, down 3.1%;
Europe — $54.2 billion, down 9.7%;
Africa — $2.5 billion, down 2.7%.

Asia supplied about two thirds of total imports ($135.6 billion out of $203.3 billion), while Europe accounted for about 26.7% ($54.2 billion out of $203.3 billion). The steepest regional decline was in European imports, down 9.7%, which in absolute terms removed roughly $5.8 billion from an implied $60.0 billion and did most of the work in widening the surplus.

What the nine-month picture shows

Taken together, the January–September 2024 figures describe a trade account whose surplus widened on the import side while the export side held nearly flat and continued its geographic pivot. Exports grew by less than half a percent, yet the surplus grew by more than a tenth, because the import bill fell by close to 5%. The regional tables show the same pivot on both sides of the account: Asia dominates exports at about three quarters of the total and supplies about two thirds of imports, while Europe's role keeps shrinking in both directions.

For the full-year picture, the nine-month trend implies that the surplus would have to keep running at roughly the same monthly pace — about $12.8 billion per month on average over the nine months, or $114.9 billion divided by nine — to carry the expansion into the fourth quarter. The customs service data for January–September 2024 were published in the Interfax report of November 11, 2024.