Russia's November 2025 Inflation Came In at 0.42%, With the Annual Rate Slowing to 6.64% — Below Market Expectations
Consumer prices in Russia rose by 0.42% in November 2025 after an increase of 0.50% in October, according to data from Rosstat, the federal statistics service. Annual inflation slowed to 6.64% at the end of November from 7.71% at the end of October. Both readings came in below the expectations of economists polled by Interfax, whose consensus forecast stood at 0.52% for the month and 6.74% for the year.
November 2025: price growth below consensus
The November data were published on December 10, 2025 and reported by Interfax. Price growth over the month proved weaker than the market had expected: economists surveyed by the agency had forecast November inflation of 0.52%, while the actual increase was 0.42%. The annual rate likewise undershot expectations, coming in at 6.64% against a consensus of 6.74%.
Since the start of the year, consumer prices have risen by 5.25% compared with December 2024. A year earlier, the comparable increase over the eleven months of 2024 was larger: the index for November 2024 relative to December 2023 stood at 108.09%, implying growth of 8.09%.
The CPI readings in index form
Rosstat expressed the November result as index values of the consumer price index (CPI):
- 100.42% — the CPI for November 2025 relative to October 2025;
- 105.25% — the CPI for November 2025 relative to December 2024;
- 101.43% and 108.09% — the corresponding index values a year earlier, in November 2024, relative to October 2024 and December 2023.
The comparison shows that the monthly step of price growth in November 2025, at 0.42%, was several times smaller than in the same month a year earlier, when prices added 1.43% over October 2024.
The path of annual inflation through 2025
The annual series for 2025, as given in the Interfax report, shows a sustained slowdown after the spring peak:
- December 2024 — 9.52%;
- January 2025 — 9.92%;
- February — 10.06%;
- March — 10.34%, the peak of the series;
- April — 10.23%;
- May — 9.88%;
- June — 9.40%;
- July — 8.79%;
- August — 8.14%;
- September — 7.98%;
- October — 7.71%;
- November — 6.64%.
Between the March peak of 10.34% and the November value of 6.64%, annual inflation came down by 3.70 percentage points. The October-to-November step alone accounted for 1.07 percentage points — the largest single monthly decrease in the series above. Measured from the end of December 2024, when the annual rate stood at 9.52%, inflation has fallen by 2.88 percentage points over the eleven months of 2025.
November 2025 against November 2024
The year-on-year comparison runs through both horizons that Rosstat publishes. On the monthly horizon, prices in November 2025 added 0.42% against 1.43% in November 2024. On the year-to-date horizon, the increase to the December base reached 5.25% in eleven months of 2025 against 8.09% over the same span a year earlier.
Why the annual rate dropped so sharply
The annual figure compares prices of November 2025 with prices of November 2024. A year earlier the monthly step was 1.43% — more than three times the current 0.42%. Because that heavier November increase of 2024 is now inside the comparison base while the current month added much less, the annual rate fell from 7.71% to 6.64% in a single step.
Market expectations and the significance of the release
Interfax noted that price growth in November proved below market expectations. The consensus of economists polled by the agency assumed a monthly increase of 0.52% and an annual rate of 6.74%; the actual values were 0.42% and 6.64%. The gap is small in each reading, but both numbers moved in the same direction — below the forecast.
The November release completes eleven months of price statistics for 2025: from the March peak of 10.34% the annual rate has descended for eight consecutive readings, finishing November at 6.64% — the lowest value of the series. With growth of 5.25% since the start of the year, the December print will determine where the full-year figure for 2025 settles.
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